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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division champions falling away and longtime also-rans rising together. In an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where his candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still